Insights Roundup – 05/10/2026

Consumer: 

• GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index increased by one point to -13 in September, marking the third consecutive monthly improvement and the highest level since summer 2024. The strongest gains were recorded in perceptions of the wider economy and personal finances, although confidence remains firmly in negative territory overall. The Major Purchase Index fell slightly, while the Savings Index rose to +27, indicating that some households may be prioritising building financial resilience amid renewed inflationary pressures and rising energy costs.  
  NiQ/GfK – UK Consumer Confidence Index (25 September 2026) 
• Irish consumer sentiment fell to 61.1 in September from 63.2 in August, leaving confidence at a four-month low. The decline reflects concerns around rising energy costs, higher household bills, transport fare increases, a cooling jobs market and wider economic uncertainty. While the fall was relatively modest, the report notes that consumers remain cautious about the economic outlook and household finances. Looking ahead to Budget 2027, healthcare (44%), cost-of-living supports (41%) and housing (38%) were identified as the public’s top priorities.  
  Credit Union Ireland – Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey September 2026 (29 September 2026) 

Economy: 

• The latest Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) indicates that economic output increased by 1.0% over the quarter to June 2026 and by 2.3% over the year. Growth in Northern Ireland continued to outpace the UK, where GDP increased by 0.4% over the quarter and 1.2% over the year. Private sector output increased by 2.2% over the year, while public sector output increased by 2.5%, highlighting broad-based economic growth across the NI economy.  
  NISRA – NI Composite Economic Index Q2 2026 (24 September 2026) 

Closer to home: 

• The Central Statistics Office (CSO) reports that 788,700 foreign visitors completed a trip to Ireland in August 2026, an increase of 2% compared with August 2025. Year-to-date overnight visits reached 4.7 million, up 11% on the same period last year. Despite higher visitor numbers, total visitor expenditure fell by 2% to €729 million and nights spent declined by 2%, suggesting shorter stays and lower spend per visitor. Great Britain remained Ireland’s largest source market, accounting for 36% of all visitors. 
  CSO – Inbound Tourism August 2026 (29 September 2026) 

Tourism Performance Statistics 

• Q1 2026 statistics published by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA) point to an encouraging start to the year for tourism in Northern Ireland, with growth of 6% for both overnight trips and expenditure compared to the same period last year and nights largely on par. While the quarterly results should be treated with caution due to sample size and seasonal effects, the data suggests that the positive performance has been underpinned by a strong domestic market, with additional momentum from international visitors and continued resilience from Republic of Ireland and Great Britain markets. 
  NISRA – Q1 Tourism Performance Statistics (17 September 2026) 

• January-June 2026 data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) indicate responsible tourism growth in the first half of 2026, with ROI visitors staying longer and spending more in NI. Following growth of more than two-fifths in the first half of 2025, the number of holiday trips was maintained at a similarly strong level during January-June 2026. ROI domestic tourism performance also saw improvements in all KPIs in the first half of 2026.  
  CSO – Household Travel Survey Quarter 2 2026 (11/09/2026) 

Consumer 

• The Consumer Council’s Northern Ireland Household Expenditure Tracker covering January to March 2026 shows that Northern Ireland household finances showed small signs of improvement at the start of 2026, with discretionary income increasing across all four income groups. However, after adjusting for inflation, spending power remains below early 2021 levels across every group. The lowest-earning households have seen their spending power fall by 35% since 2021 and have an average of just £53 per week available after essential bills, highlighting continued pressure on discretionary spending in Northern Ireland. 
  Consumer Council – Northern Ireland Household Expenditure Tracker (10 September 2026) 

International Tourism 

• UN Tourism reports that international tourism grew by just 0.4% in the first half of 2026, with around 690 million international tourists recorded between January and June. Europe performed more strongly, with arrivals up 3%, while Northern Europe recorded growth of 3%. The Middle East saw a 22% decline, while UN Tourism has reduced its forecast for global international tourism growth in 2026 to between 1% and 2%, down from the previous 3%-4% forecast, reflecting the impact of geopolitical uncertainty, higher travel costs and weaker demand. 
  UN Tourism – World Tourism Barometer (17 September 2026) 

Economy 

• Euromonitor’s Q3 2026 outlook highlights continued pressure on global growth from energy disruption and trade uncertainty. Global real GDP growth is projected at 3.0% in 2026, with inflation at 4.9%, while the UK and eurozone remain particularly exposed to imported energy costs and tariff uncertainty. For tourism, the report highlights the potential for higher energy, freight and insurance costs to feed through into household purchasing power, transport costs and wider business margins, making cost volatility an ongoing consideration for businesses. 
  Euromonitor – Global Economic Outlook Q3 2026 (24 August 2026) 

Consumer: 

• GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index increased by three points to -14 in August, its highest level in two years. Consumers were more optimistic about their personal finances and the wider economic outlook over the next 12 months, while the measure tracking willingness to make major purchases reached its strongest level since December 2021. Despite the improvement in sentiment, confidence remains in negative territory, with rising inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continuing to present challenges for household spending and economic confidence. NiQ/GfK - UK Consumer Confidence Barometer (21 August 2026) 
• Irish consumer sentiment edged higher in August, reaching its highest level since February and recovering further from the sharp decline seen earlier this year. While the modest improvement suggests some easing in concerns following recent global economic uncertainty, the overall tone remains subdued. Higher prices continue to drive increased spending on essentials, while many consumers report cutting back on discretionary items such as holidays, leisure activities and nights out, highlighting the ongoing impact of cost-of-living pressures on household budgets. Credit Union Ireland – ROI Consumer Confidence Index (28 August 2026)

Closer to Home: 

• Some 676,300 foreign visitors completed a trip to the Republic of Ireland in July 2026, an increase of 5% compared with July 2025. Visitor expenditure reached an estimated €681 million, up 9% year-on-year. Year-to-date overnight visits by foreign residents were estimated at 3.9 million, an increase of 13% on the same period in 2025. Visitors from Great Britain and Continental Europe each accounted for 32% of all visitors, with North America accounting for a further 30%. CSO - Inbound Tourism July 2026 (27 August 2026)
• VisitBritain forecasts 45.5 million inbound visits to the UK in 2026, with overseas visitors expected to spend £35.7 billion. Compared with 2025, this would represent growth of 2% in visitor numbers and nominal spending. This is a downgrade from the forecast issued by VisitBritain in January, when we were expecting 45.5 million visits and £35.7 billion spending; the new forecast is lower by 1.2 million and £1.8 billion respectively. VisitBritain – 2026 Inbound Tourism Forecast (27 August 2026)

Insights Roundup – 10/08/2026

Consumer: 

• The Consumer Council’s latest Pulse Survey suggests that cost-of-living pressures continue to affect many households across Northern Ireland. Around two in five respondents felt financially worse off than a year ago, with food, energy and fuel costs remaining the dominant concerns. 
  Consumer Council – Northern Ireland Consumers and the Cost of Living Pulse Survey (July 2026) 
  
  
• GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index increased six points to -17 in July, representing the largest monthly improvement since November 2023. All five measures improved, with consumers expressing greater optimism about the economy and major purchases. While the report points to factors such as political change, easing fuel price concerns and a general summer feel-good factor, confidence remains firmly in negative territory and well below historic norms, suggesting households remain cautious despite the improvement. 
  NiQ/GfK – UK Consumer Confidence Index (July 2026) 
  
  
• Irish consumer sentiment edged marginally lower in July, reflecting ongoing concerns about the cost of living and household finances. While inflation pressures eased slightly and economic forecasts remain positive, consumers remain focused on rising living costs, energy prices and job security. A special survey question found that 42% of respondents viewed cost-of-living pressures as the most pressing issue facing the Irish economy, well ahead of housing (15%) and the economic impacts of global conflicts (7%). 
  Credit Union Ireland – Irish Consumer Confidence Index (July 2026) 

Closer to Home: 

• Tourism Ireland’s latest Situation and Outlook Analysis Report (SOAR) highlights a strong start to 2026, with almost 2.6 million overseas visitors to Ireland between January and May generating €1.95 billion in expenditure. While the outlook remains favourable, Tourism Ireland notes growing caution around the second half of the year due to geopolitical uncertainty and its potential impacts on consumer confidence, aviation and travel demand. 
  Tourism Ireland – Situation & Outlook Analysis Report (20 July 2026)
  
  
• Fáilte Ireland’s Business of Tourism Report 2026 underlines the continued importance of tourism to the Irish economy. The sector generated €11.2 billion in tourism earnings during 2025 and supported 229,400 jobs, equivalent to almost one in ten jobs nationally. Overseas visitors spent €5.7 billion during the year, while domestic tourism contributed a further €3.6 billion. The report highlights tourism’s role in regional economies, with 70% of tourism employment located outside Dublin, while early indicators for 2026 point to continued recovery in inbound demand and steady domestic activity. Fáilte Ireland – Business of Tourism Report 2026 (28 July 2026)

Insights Roundup - 06/07/26

 Consumer: 

• The latest European Travel Commission report indicates that travel demand remains resilient between June and November 2026, with 81% of Europeans planning to travel, up four percentage points on last year. Safety, affordability and climate considerations are increasingly shaping destination choices, while rising costs remain the principal concern. Southern Europe continues to lead demand, although travellers are showing a growing preference for lesser-known destinations and less crowded experiences. 
  European Travel Commission – Monitoring Sentiment for Intra-European Travel (2 July 2026)
• GfK’s long-running UK Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at -23 in June. While expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months improved slightly, confidence remains subdued overall. Notably, sentiment among 16–29-year-olds fell sharply, while higher-income households also slipped into negative territory. The findings suggest consumers remain cautious amid ongoing economic and political uncertainty. NIQ/GfK – UK Consumer Confidence Index June 2026 (19 June 2026) 

•  Irish consumer confidence increased for a second consecutive month in June, indicating a cautious recovery in sentiment. The improvement suggests some easing of concerns following the sharp decline recorded earlier in the year, although confidence remains well below long-term averages and consumers continue to face cost-of-living pressures and uncertainty around the economic outlook. 
  Credit Union Ireland – Irish Consumer Confidence Index (1 July 2026) 

Industry:

• Strong demand has pushed tourism to record levels in many OECD countries in recent years. International tourist arrivals to OECD countries rose by 8.1% to 819.5 million in 2024 and growht continued through 2025 with international arrivals rising by an estimated 3.4%. Positive momentum was, however, disrupted in early 2026 by the conflict in the Middle East. Travel to the region, and destinations reliant on the Guld aviation hubs, have been most affected. In the near term, travel patterns may continue to be shaped by considerations around safety, potential disruptions and affordability. OECD - Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 (1 July 2026)
• The latest ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey highlights continuing pressures facing UK businesses. Almost two-thirds of firms reported concerns about energy prcies, while concerns around international conflict, supply chain disruption and fuel costs remain elevated. The accommodation and food services sector reported the hightest level of concern regarding energy prices (88%). ONS - Business Insights and Impact on the UK Economy (2 July 2026).