Insights Roundup

Insights Roundup - 04/05/26

 Industry: 

• The latest Quarterly Business Insights from NI Chamber and Queen’s University Belfast paints a picture of a business landscape that is holding up but failing to build momentum. Demand remains soft across sectors, export conditions are subdued, and cost pressures, particularly labour costs, continue to weigh on margins. While recruitment activity has strengthened, hiring is largely focused on replacement rather than expansion. For tourism and hospitality businesses, this points to continued pressure on operating costs and cautious consumer demand through 2026. NI Chamber & QUB – Quarterly Business Insights Q1 2026 (April 2026)

 Consumer: 

• GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index fell four points in April to -25, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and its lowest level since October 2023. The sharpest deterioration relates to perceptions of the wider economy, alongside renewed weakness in personal finance expectations. Rising fuel prices and broader cost pressures are driving increased caution, with the savings index the only measure to improve. This backdrop suggests a more fragile environment for discretionary spend on travel and leisure in the short term. NiQ/GfK – Consumer Confidence down four points in April (23 April 2026)  
• Irish consumer sentiment edged lower again in April to 53.3, its lowest level since December 2022, with job security concerns and energy costs weighing most heavily. However, the decline was notably less severe than in the UK, US or Euro area, suggesting Irish households are cautious but not yet retrenching sharply. This relative resilience may help support short-break and VFR travel closer to home. Credit Union Ireland – Irish Consumer Sentiment Index (28 April 2026) 

Closer to home 

• Just over 510,000 foreign visitors completed a trip to Ireland in March 2026, up 16% on March 2025 but 2% below March 2024 levels. Visitor spend rose 14% year-on-year to €372 million, with Great Britain remaining the largest source market (40%), followed by Continental Europe (35%) and North America (21%). While the monthly results point to recovery momentum versus last year, spend and volumes remain below pre-2024 peaks, underlining ongoing sensitivity to global conditions. CSO – Inbound Tourism March 2026 (30 April 2026) 

Air Access: 

• Global air travel demand continued to rise in March, with total passenger demand up 2.1% year-on-year, according to IATA, despite significant disruption in the Middle East. International travel was heavily affected by a sharp collapse in traffic through the region, but demand elsewhere grew by around 8%, helping to sustain overall growth. Load factors remained high, indicating strong underlying appetite to travel, although rising jet fuel costs and airspace constraints may test airline resilience and future capacity. ITTN – Air Travel Demand Continues to Rise Despite Middle East Concerns (30 April 2026) 

Insights Roundup 13/04/2026

Consumer:

• The Irish Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in March, as households braced for rising costs and a more uncertain economic outlook. Deterioration was recorded across expectations for personal finances, the broader economy and unemployment. The weakening sentiment suggests consumers may become more cautious in their discretionary spending decisions in the months ahead, with potential implications for domestic travel and tourism demand. Credit Union Ireland – ROI Consumer Confidence Index (27 March 2026)  

Industry:

• UKHospitality warns that a package of cost increases coming into effect in April is placing significant pressure on hospitality businesses and jobs. Higher National Insurance contributions, the National Living Wage increase, and rising energy and input costs are expected to tighten margins further across the sector. UKHospitality – April cost increases threaten hospitality jobs (1 April 2026)  

Closer to Home:

• Tourism Ireland has published its latest Situation and Outlook Analysis Report (SOAR) for March 2026, bringing together current data on visitor numbers, market sentiment, air access and the wider operating environment. Early 2026 overseas travel to the island of Ireland showed strong growth compared to last year; however, increased geopolitical uncertainty, higher fuel costs and airspace disruption are identified as key risks for the remainder of the year. Tourism Ireland – Situation and Outlook Analysis Report (SOAR) (31 March 2026)  

Air Access:

• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that global air passenger demand grew by 6.1% year-on-year in February 2026, with international demand up 5.9% and domestic demand increasing by 6.3%. However, IATA notes rising fuel costs and geopolitical disruption in the Middle East are beginning to temper capacity growth and place upward pressure on fares. This context suggests sustained demand for air travel into 2026, but with potential implications for affordability. 
  IATA – February Air Passenger Demand Grows 6.1% (31 March 2026) 

Insights Roundup 30/03/2026

Consumer:

• GfK’s long-running UK Consumer Confidence Index fell by two points to -21 in March, reflecting growing concern among households about the economic outlook. The decline was driven by a sharp deterioration in expectations for the wider economy, alongside a drop in major purchase intentions. At the same time, the savings index increased, suggesting consumers are holding back on discretionary spending as fears around rising prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weigh on sentiment. 
  NielsenIQ/GfK – UK Consumer Confidence Index March 2026 (27 March 2026) 
• The Consumer Council’s latest Pulse Survey highlights that while financial pressures on Northern Ireland households have eased since peak cost-of-living levels in 2022, challenges remain widespread. Around 42% of households report being worse off than a year ago (down 5pps vs September), with rising food and energy costs the primary drivers. Although three-quarters say they can meet essential bills, many continue to cut back on spending. 26% said they cut back on holidays and day trips in the past three months to improve their financial position. Consumer Council NI – Pulse Survey (March 2026)

Economy:

• The latest Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index indicates that economic output increased by 0.2% over the quarter to December 2025 and by 1.6% over the year. The largest contribution to growth this quarter came from increased activity in the Construction sector, which was offset by decreased activity in the Services sector. NI Private sector output increased by 0.1% over the quarter and increased by 1.5% over the year. NI Public sector output increased by 0.8% over the quarter and by 2.1% over the year. NISRA – Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Q4 2025 (26 March 2026) 
• Oxford Economics have cut their Eurozone spending forecast by 0.5pps to 0.9% growth in 2026 as a result of the conflict in Iran. Aside from the hit to purchasing power from higher energy prices, consumption will likely also suffer from weaker household sentiment, higher precautionary savings, and higher interest rates. Oxford Economics – Energy shock from Iran war could weigh on Eurozone consumer spending (26 March 2026) 
• The OECD’s latest interim economic outlook reports that global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027. However, the evolving conflict in the Middle East weighs on growth and generates significant uncertainty around global demand. These projections assume that the current energy market disruption is temporary, with prices easing from mid-2026 onward. 
  OECD – Economic Outlook Interim Report (March 2026) 

Insights Roundup 16/03/2026

Economy:

• The Department for the Economy’s latest Monthly Economic Update highlights easing inflationary pressures alongside continued resilience in Northern Ireland’s labour market. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.0% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December 2025 and the lowest annual rate since March 2025. Labour market indicators remain relatively strong, with Northern Ireland recording an unemployment rate of 2.2% compared with 5.2% in the UK overall. DfE – Monthly Economic Update February 2026 (March 2026) 

Industry:

• UK business confidence held steady at 44% in February, according to the latest Lloyds Business Barometer, remaining above the long-term average of 30%. While confidence in firms’ own trading prospects dipped slightly to 53%, optimism in the wider economy rose eight points to 36%. More than half of businesses (51%) expect to increase headcount over the next year, although hiring intentions softened overall, and 67% of firms expect to raise prices, suggesting ongoing cost pressures. Lloyds – Business Barometer February 2026 (27 February 2026)
• AIB’s latest Hospitality and Tourism Spend report highlights continued growth in consumer spending across Ireland’s hospitality and tourism sectors during 2025. Card transaction data shows strong demand for restaurants, hotels and tourism-related activities, with spend particularly concentrated in peak summer months and key tourism destinations. The findings reinforce the importance of domestic and international visitors to the sector and the ongoing recovery of tourism-related spending following recent economic challenges. AIB – Hospitality and Tourism Spend Report 2025 (March 2026) 
• The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates that travel and tourism investment across G20 countries could reach US$12.5 trillion by 2035. The report highlights how long-term investment in tourism infrastructure, transport connectivity and destination development will be critical for strengthening global competitiveness, job creation, and economic growth. The findings underline the sector’s strategic importance as governments increasingly view tourism investment as a driver of national economic performance. WTTC – Bridging the Gap: Travel & Tourism Capital Investment and Demand Growth Across the G20 (4 March 2026)
• Another WTTC survey suggests the introduction of tourist taxes in the UK could influence travel demand and visitor spending. Among travellers from the US, France and Germany, 59% say they are certain or likely to visit the UK in the next 2–3 years, but this falls to 44% if a visitor levy of around €5–€10 ($6–$12) per person per night is introduced. The impact is strongest among those planning a trip but not yet booked. Previous experience also shows tourist taxes can alter visitor behaviour, with 46% of travellers saying they have previously shortened trips, reduced spending or chosen alternative destinations due to such charges. WTTC – UK Tourist Taxes: Survey Results (17 February 2026)