Insights Roundup

Insights Roundup 30/03/2026

Consumer:

• GfK’s long-running UK Consumer Confidence Index fell by two points to -21 in March, reflecting growing concern among households about the economic outlook. The decline was driven by a sharp deterioration in expectations for the wider economy, alongside a drop in major purchase intentions. At the same time, the savings index increased, suggesting consumers are holding back on discretionary spending as fears around rising prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weigh on sentiment. 
  NielsenIQ/GfK – UK Consumer Confidence Index March 2026 (27 March 2026) 
• The Consumer Council’s latest Pulse Survey highlights that while financial pressures on Northern Ireland households have eased since peak cost-of-living levels in 2022, challenges remain widespread. Around 42% of households report being worse off than a year ago (down 5pps vs September), with rising food and energy costs the primary drivers. Although three-quarters say they can meet essential bills, many continue to cut back on spending. 26% said they cut back on holidays and day trips in the past three months to improve their financial position. Consumer Council NI – Pulse Survey (March 2026)

Economy:

• The latest Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index indicates that economic output increased by 0.2% over the quarter to December 2025 and by 1.6% over the year. The largest contribution to growth this quarter came from increased activity in the Construction sector, which was offset by decreased activity in the Services sector. NI Private sector output increased by 0.1% over the quarter and increased by 1.5% over the year. NI Public sector output increased by 0.8% over the quarter and by 2.1% over the year. NISRA – Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Q4 2025 (26 March 2026) 
• Oxford Economics have cut their Eurozone spending forecast by 0.5pps to 0.9% growth in 2026 as a result of the conflict in Iran. Aside from the hit to purchasing power from higher energy prices, consumption will likely also suffer from weaker household sentiment, higher precautionary savings, and higher interest rates. Oxford Economics – Energy shock from Iran war could weigh on Eurozone consumer spending (26 March 2026) 
• The OECD’s latest interim economic outlook reports that global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027. However, the evolving conflict in the Middle East weighs on growth and generates significant uncertainty around global demand. These projections assume that the current energy market disruption is temporary, with prices easing from mid-2026 onward. 
  OECD – Economic Outlook Interim Report (March 2026) 

Insights Roundup 16/03/2026

Economy:

• The Department for the Economy’s latest Monthly Economic Update highlights easing inflationary pressures alongside continued resilience in Northern Ireland’s labour market. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.0% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December 2025 and the lowest annual rate since March 2025. Labour market indicators remain relatively strong, with Northern Ireland recording an unemployment rate of 2.2% compared with 5.2% in the UK overall. DfE – Monthly Economic Update February 2026 (March 2026) 

Industry:

• UK business confidence held steady at 44% in February, according to the latest Lloyds Business Barometer, remaining above the long-term average of 30%. While confidence in firms’ own trading prospects dipped slightly to 53%, optimism in the wider economy rose eight points to 36%. More than half of businesses (51%) expect to increase headcount over the next year, although hiring intentions softened overall, and 67% of firms expect to raise prices, suggesting ongoing cost pressures. Lloyds – Business Barometer February 2026 (27 February 2026)
• AIB’s latest Hospitality and Tourism Spend report highlights continued growth in consumer spending across Ireland’s hospitality and tourism sectors during 2025. Card transaction data shows strong demand for restaurants, hotels and tourism-related activities, with spend particularly concentrated in peak summer months and key tourism destinations. The findings reinforce the importance of domestic and international visitors to the sector and the ongoing recovery of tourism-related spending following recent economic challenges. AIB – Hospitality and Tourism Spend Report 2025 (March 2026) 
• The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates that travel and tourism investment across G20 countries could reach US$12.5 trillion by 2035. The report highlights how long-term investment in tourism infrastructure, transport connectivity and destination development will be critical for strengthening global competitiveness, job creation, and economic growth. The findings underline the sector’s strategic importance as governments increasingly view tourism investment as a driver of national economic performance. WTTC – Bridging the Gap: Travel & Tourism Capital Investment and Demand Growth Across the G20 (4 March 2026)
• Another WTTC survey suggests the introduction of tourist taxes in the UK could influence travel demand and visitor spending. Among travellers from the US, France and Germany, 59% say they are certain or likely to visit the UK in the next 2–3 years, but this falls to 44% if a visitor levy of around €5–€10 ($6–$12) per person per night is introduced. The impact is strongest among those planning a trip but not yet booked. Previous experience also shows tourist taxes can alter visitor behaviour, with 46% of travellers saying they have previously shortened trips, reduced spending or chosen alternative destinations due to such charges. WTTC – UK Tourist Taxes: Survey Results (17 February 2026)

Insights Roundup 09/03/2026

Consumer:

• GfK's UK Consumer Confidence Index fell three points to -19 in February, reversing the modest improvements recorded in recent months. The decline was largely driven by weaker perceptions of personal finances and a reduced appetite for major purchases. Despite easing inflation, rising prices and growing concerns around job security continue to weigh on sentiment, prompting many households to prioritise day-to-day spending rather than longer-term purchases or savings. This cautious consumer outlook may contiinue to constrain discretionary spending, potentially including travel and leisure. NiQ/GfK - UK Consumer Confidence Index (27 February 2026)
• Irish consumer sentiment edged slightly higher in February, reaching its strongest level since March 2025. While the improvement siggests some stabilisation in household confidence, the overall level of sentiment remains dubdued, reflecting continued caution among consumers in the face of cost-of-living pressures and wider economic uncertainty. The modest uplift may signal that consumers are beginning to perceive some easing in inflationary pressures, though it is not yet indicative of a significant improvement in household spending power. Credit Union Ireland - ROI Consumer Confidence Index (25 February 2026).

Tourism Performance:

• Europe's tourism sector maintained steady demand through late 2025, with international arrivals increasing by 3.2% year-on-year and overnight stays rising 3.1%. Notably, traveller spending grew significantly faster than arrivals, with overall tourism expenditure estimated to have increased by 9.7% in 2025. This suggests destinations are increasingly benefiting from higher per-trip spending rather than large increases in visitor numbers, with travellers seeking value, off-season trips and less crowded destinations. International arrivals to Europe are forecast to grow by a further 6.2% in 2026, supported in part by recovering long-haul markets such as China and India. European Travel Commission – European Tourism Trends & Prospects Q4 2025 (February 2026)  

Consumer/Retail:

• UK retail footfall declined sharply in February, falling by 4.7% year-on-year as one of the wettest Februarys on record kept shoppers away from high streets and shopping centres. All UK nations experienced declines, including a 2.3% drop in Northern Ireland. Heavy rainfall alongside ongoing cost-of-living pressures and rising unemployment contributed to weaker consumer activity, with some spending shifting online instead. The figures highlight how weather conditions and economic uncertainty continue to influence discretionary trips and retail spending. BRC-Sensormatic – UK Footfall Monitor February 2026 (6 March 2026) 

Air Access:

• Aer Lingus Regional has launched its largest ever summer schedule from Belfast City Airport, with more than 750,000 seats available – a 25% year-on-year increase. The expanded programme includes increased frequencies on key routes such as Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Southampton, alongside services to Exeter and Newquay. ITTN – Aer Lingus Regional launches biggest ever summer schedule from Belfast City Airport (4 March 2026)  

Insights Roundup 16/02/2026

Consumer:

• GfK's long-running UK Consumer Confidence Index was up one point to -16 in January. Even with a one-point increase in headline confidence this month to -16, we remain a long way from consumers feeling that better days are around the corner. While perceptions of personal finances have improved, this is offset by growing concerns about the economy. We’ve seen this pattern before. During periods of political and economic uncertainty – most notably in late 2022 –consumers became more cautious but also more self-reliant. What we’re witnessing now is a return to that mindset: people feel they can manage their own finances, but they remain unconvinced about the wider economic outlook.  NiQ/GfK - UK Consumer Confidence Index (23 January 2026)  
• As is usually the case, Irish consumer sentiment edged higher in January. However, if history is any guide, the February sentiment reading tends to signal a renewed focus on challenges for household finances and the broader economic environment. Frequently, this leads to a correction that brings the index lower. The monthly uptick in consumer sentiment could suggest Irish consumers may be detecting very tentative signs of a slowdown in living cost inflation of late.  The still downbeat tone of sentiment suggests consumers view this as some degree of easing in current pressures rather than signaling any clear gains in household spending power. Credit Union Ireland – ROI Consumer Confidence Index (27 January 2026) 

Tourism Performance:

• During January-September 2025, there were over 3.8 million overnight trips taken in NI, accounting for over 12 million nights and almost £918 million expenditure. Overnight trips and spend increased by 6% and 10%, respectively. Nights saw a smaller increase of just 1%. The increase in overall performance was largely driven by the ROI and GB markets, with positive performance from these markets during January-September 2025 offsetting the declines from Domestic and Other Overseas visitors. Day trip performance in the 12 months to September 2025 experienced strong growth of almost two-fifths, with the number of domestic day trips and its associated expenditure increasing by 46% and 33% respectively. NISRA – Quarterly Tourism Statistics Publication Q3 2025 (29 January 2026) [see infographic here] 

Economy:

• The Department for the Economy (DfE)’s Analytical Services Division produces a monthly economic update which analyses the main trends and events arising each month, both in the local economy and any national or global economic events which will impact on Northern Ireland. The January 2026 update is now available below. DfE – Monthly Economic Update January 2026 (2 February 2026)  
• The latest NI Composite Economic Index indicates that the NI economy grew by 1.0% over the quarter and by 2.9% over the year to Q3 2025, reaching a new series high and a level that was 12.0% higher than in pre-Pandemic Q4 2019. For comparison, UK GDP increased over the quarter (0.1%) and over the year (1.3%) to quarter 3 2025. NISRA – Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Q3 2025 (15 January 2026) 

Closer to Home:

• Some 524,100 foreign visitors completed a trip to the Republic of Ireland in December 2025, an increase of 34% when compared with December 2024. Overall, for the full year 2025, total foreign visitor numbers fell by 3% to 6.4 million. Overnight foreign visitor nights throughout 2025 and associated expenditure both experienced declines compared to 2024 as well. For the full year 2025, visitors from Great Britain accounted for the largest share (38%), compared with Continental Europe (33%), North America (24%), and Rest of the World (5%). CSO - Inbound Tourism December 2025 (29 January 2026)