Insights Roundup

Insights Roundup - 25/05/26

 Tourism Performance Statistics: 

• Full year 2025 figures released by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) relating to overnight trips taken in Northern Ireland indicates strong growth in overnight tourism performance, driven largely by the island of Ireland markets. Overall, increases are evident for trips and expenditure, alongside more modest growth in nights. Holiday and business trips experienced the largest increases, with those visiting friends/relatives similar to 2024 levels. 
  NISRA - NI Annual Tourism Statistics 2025 (21 May 2026) 

 Consumer: 

• GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index increased by two points to -23 in May, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment. While perceptions of personal finances and the wider economy have strengthened, there is a notable decline in intentions to make major purchases, alongside a sharp fall in savings levels. This suggests that while consumers may feel marginally more confident, cost-of-living pressures remain acute, with many households prioritising day‑to‑day spending over longer-term financial planning. NiQ/GfK - UK Consumer Confidence Index (21 May 2026)
• Irish consumer sentiment improved modestly in May, rising to 59.4 from a recent low, but remains well below its long-term average. The uplift has been linked to easing geopolitical tensions and government support measures, particularly around energy costs. However, the overall picture remains fragile, with households continuing to report pressure on spending power and a cautious outlook for both personal finances and the wider economy. Credit Union Ireland – Irish Consumer Confidence Index (22 May 2026) 

Industry: 

• The UK Government has announced a temporary VAT cut from 20% to 5% on a range of leisure activities as part of its “Great British Summer Savings” scheme. Running from late June to early September, the measure applies to attractions, entertainment tickets, and children’s meals, and is designed to reduce the cost of domestic days out while boosting footfall for tourism and hospitality businesses during the peak summer period. UK Government - Temporary Summer VAT Cut (21 May 2026) [link to BBC article here] 
• Global Travel & Tourism is expected to continue outperforming the global economy, growing 1.5 times faster over the next decade according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). The sector is forecast to contribute $12 trillion to global GDP in 2026 (9.9% of the total) and support 376 million jobs, with almost 89 million new jobs expected over the next 10 years. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, Travel & Tourism is demonstrating strong resilience, underpinned by investment in infrastructure, digital innovation, and sustainability. WTTC - Global Travel & Tourism Growth to Outpace Wider Economy (May 2026) 

Economy:

• The UK inflation rate fell to 2.8% in the year to April, down from 3.3% in the year to March. Lower gas and electricity bills were behind a bigger than expected drop in the UK's inflation rate, however analysts expect inflation to rise and reach about 4% by the end of the year, as the Middle East conflict continues to add pressure on global prices. BBC - Inflation falls to 2.8% but is expected to rise from here (20 May 2026) 

Insights Roundup - 04/05/26

 Industry: 

• The latest Quarterly Business Insights from NI Chamber and Queen’s University Belfast paints a picture of a business landscape that is holding up but failing to build momentum. Demand remains soft across sectors, export conditions are subdued, and cost pressures, particularly labour costs, continue to weigh on margins. While recruitment activity has strengthened, hiring is largely focused on replacement rather than expansion. For tourism and hospitality businesses, this points to continued pressure on operating costs and cautious consumer demand through 2026. NI Chamber & QUB – Quarterly Business Insights Q1 2026 (April 2026)

 Consumer: 

• GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index fell four points in April to -25, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and its lowest level since October 2023. The sharpest deterioration relates to perceptions of the wider economy, alongside renewed weakness in personal finance expectations. Rising fuel prices and broader cost pressures are driving increased caution, with the savings index the only measure to improve. This backdrop suggests a more fragile environment for discretionary spend on travel and leisure in the short term. NiQ/GfK – Consumer Confidence down four points in April (23 April 2026)  
• Irish consumer sentiment edged lower again in April to 53.3, its lowest level since December 2022, with job security concerns and energy costs weighing most heavily. However, the decline was notably less severe than in the UK, US or Euro area, suggesting Irish households are cautious but not yet retrenching sharply. This relative resilience may help support short-break and VFR travel closer to home. Credit Union Ireland – Irish Consumer Sentiment Index (28 April 2026) 

Closer to home 

• Just over 510,000 foreign visitors completed a trip to Ireland in March 2026, up 16% on March 2025 but 2% below March 2024 levels. Visitor spend rose 14% year-on-year to €372 million, with Great Britain remaining the largest source market (40%), followed by Continental Europe (35%) and North America (21%). While the monthly results point to recovery momentum versus last year, spend and volumes remain below pre-2024 peaks, underlining ongoing sensitivity to global conditions. CSO – Inbound Tourism March 2026 (30 April 2026) 

Air Access: 

• Global air travel demand continued to rise in March, with total passenger demand up 2.1% year-on-year, according to IATA, despite significant disruption in the Middle East. International travel was heavily affected by a sharp collapse in traffic through the region, but demand elsewhere grew by around 8%, helping to sustain overall growth. Load factors remained high, indicating strong underlying appetite to travel, although rising jet fuel costs and airspace constraints may test airline resilience and future capacity. ITTN – Air Travel Demand Continues to Rise Despite Middle East Concerns (30 April 2026) 

Insights Roundup 13/04/2026

Consumer:

• The Irish Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in March, as households braced for rising costs and a more uncertain economic outlook. Deterioration was recorded across expectations for personal finances, the broader economy and unemployment. The weakening sentiment suggests consumers may become more cautious in their discretionary spending decisions in the months ahead, with potential implications for domestic travel and tourism demand. Credit Union Ireland – ROI Consumer Confidence Index (27 March 2026)  

Industry:

• UKHospitality warns that a package of cost increases coming into effect in April is placing significant pressure on hospitality businesses and jobs. Higher National Insurance contributions, the National Living Wage increase, and rising energy and input costs are expected to tighten margins further across the sector. UKHospitality – April cost increases threaten hospitality jobs (1 April 2026)  

Closer to Home:

• Tourism Ireland has published its latest Situation and Outlook Analysis Report (SOAR) for March 2026, bringing together current data on visitor numbers, market sentiment, air access and the wider operating environment. Early 2026 overseas travel to the island of Ireland showed strong growth compared to last year; however, increased geopolitical uncertainty, higher fuel costs and airspace disruption are identified as key risks for the remainder of the year. Tourism Ireland – Situation and Outlook Analysis Report (SOAR) (31 March 2026)  

Air Access:

• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that global air passenger demand grew by 6.1% year-on-year in February 2026, with international demand up 5.9% and domestic demand increasing by 6.3%. However, IATA notes rising fuel costs and geopolitical disruption in the Middle East are beginning to temper capacity growth and place upward pressure on fares. This context suggests sustained demand for air travel into 2026, but with potential implications for affordability. 
  IATA – February Air Passenger Demand Grows 6.1% (31 March 2026) 

Insights Roundup 30/03/2026

Consumer:

• GfK’s long-running UK Consumer Confidence Index fell by two points to -21 in March, reflecting growing concern among households about the economic outlook. The decline was driven by a sharp deterioration in expectations for the wider economy, alongside a drop in major purchase intentions. At the same time, the savings index increased, suggesting consumers are holding back on discretionary spending as fears around rising prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weigh on sentiment. 
  NielsenIQ/GfK – UK Consumer Confidence Index March 2026 (27 March 2026) 
• The Consumer Council’s latest Pulse Survey highlights that while financial pressures on Northern Ireland households have eased since peak cost-of-living levels in 2022, challenges remain widespread. Around 42% of households report being worse off than a year ago (down 5pps vs September), with rising food and energy costs the primary drivers. Although three-quarters say they can meet essential bills, many continue to cut back on spending. 26% said they cut back on holidays and day trips in the past three months to improve their financial position. Consumer Council NI – Pulse Survey (March 2026)

Economy:

• The latest Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index indicates that economic output increased by 0.2% over the quarter to December 2025 and by 1.6% over the year. The largest contribution to growth this quarter came from increased activity in the Construction sector, which was offset by decreased activity in the Services sector. NI Private sector output increased by 0.1% over the quarter and increased by 1.5% over the year. NI Public sector output increased by 0.8% over the quarter and by 2.1% over the year. NISRA – Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Q4 2025 (26 March 2026) 
• Oxford Economics have cut their Eurozone spending forecast by 0.5pps to 0.9% growth in 2026 as a result of the conflict in Iran. Aside from the hit to purchasing power from higher energy prices, consumption will likely also suffer from weaker household sentiment, higher precautionary savings, and higher interest rates. Oxford Economics – Energy shock from Iran war could weigh on Eurozone consumer spending (26 March 2026) 
• The OECD’s latest interim economic outlook reports that global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027. However, the evolving conflict in the Middle East weighs on growth and generates significant uncertainty around global demand. These projections assume that the current energy market disruption is temporary, with prices easing from mid-2026 onward. 
  OECD – Economic Outlook Interim Report (March 2026)