TNI’s Industry Barometer Survey

Tourism Northern Ireland commissioned a survey in October with Northern Ireland’s tourism industry to monitor 2025 year-to-date (Jan-Sep) business performance, including outlook for the remainder of the year, as well as causes of concern and reasons to be optimistic.

The research indicates:

Generally positive industry performance during January to September 2025 for the closer to home and international markets

The majority of businesses reported turnover exceeding (40%) or matching (41%) January-September 2024, with paid serviced accommodation providers particularly positive.
A considerable proportion of businesses reported growth across the Northern Ireland domestic, Republic of Ireland and Great Britain markets, although a minority of just under one in five experienced a decline in visitor volumes from each of these key markets compared to the same period in 2024.
Overall, the majority of businesses have seen international visitor volumes either exceed or match 2024 volumes, with just over one-fifth reporting a decline on the previous year.
Among those businesses reporting growth for the closer-to-home and international markets, the factor most likely to be identified as contributing to the higher visitor volumes was the impact of golf/The 153rd Open at Royal Portrush.

Overall, business outlook is mixed, with an operating environment that remains challenging across all key sectors

Industry outlook for the final quarter of 2025 is mixed, with around one-fifth anticipating reduced business, and one-quarter expecting increased trade, compared to the same period in 2024. Just over half expect business levels to remain the same.
Significant levels of concern continue to prevail regarding the adverse impact of reduced consumer disposable income. High energy prices and other operating costs also remain a cause for concern.

Staff recruitment issues continue

Approximately one-quarter (26%) of businesses employing staff highlighted ongoing challenges in relation to staff recruitment. This represents an increase on the proportion of businesses who were experiencing similar challenges in the previous October 2024 industry survey (19%).

Varied reasons to be optimistic

The impact of positive online reviews, word-of-mouth recommendations and the continued success of repeat visitors were most likely to be highlighted as reasons to be positive for the remainder of the year and into 2026. The anticipated increase in golf visitors was also identified as strengthening the outlook for the year ahead.